Winter has closed across the South West Slopes with a distinctive mix of unexpected rainfall inland and record warmth, leaving local farmers and water managers to weigh a promising finish against a Bureau of Meteorology outlook that points to warmer days and below-average rain through spring and into summer.
A strong El Niño — not La Niña — is the dominant climate driver for eastern Australia. The Bureau declared the event underway from mid-June. It has strengthened rapidly, with the latest relative Niño 3.4 index well above the +0.8°C threshold and models forecasting a peak in late spring or summer that could rank among the strongest since reliable records began in 1950. The event is expected to persist into autumn 2027. El Niño typically tilts the odds toward reduced rainfall across eastern and southern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures, though the Bureau stresses it is only one influence among several, including local sea-surface temperatures and the currently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole.
Winter 2026 was mild in the sense that it was unusually warm rather than bitterly cold. New South Wales recorded its warmest winter on record, with the state’s area-averaged mean temperature 1.81°C above the 1961–1990 average. Mean maximums were the fourth warmest on record and mean minimums the warmest. Nationally, it ranked equal third warmest. Sydney also posted its warmest winter on record.
Rainfall told a more mixed story. Statewide, New South Wales finished six percent above average at 119.1mm. Inland of the Great Dividing Range (including much of the South West Slopes) totals were above to very much above average. Nearby Young Airport recorded 227 mm (130 percent of average) and Cootamundra Airport 226.2 mm (134 percent). Coastal areas were generally drier.
The Bureau’s earlier winter outlook had favoured below-average rain across southern and eastern Australia; the season proved wetter than expected in many inland districts thanks to tropical moisture and other influences that temporarily offset El Niño’s drying tendency.
For Harden and surrounding grazing and cropping country, the combination of decent winter rain and persistently high temperatures produced a relatively kind season for pasture growth, even as alpine snow cover remained poor.
The Bureau’s latest long-range forecast, issued 3 September for September to November, shows spring rainfall likely to be below average (60 to greater than 80 per cent chance) across parts of south-eastern Australia, including southern New South Wales. The driest signal is strongest in September. Western Australia leans wetter. Both daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country, with an increased chance of unusually high maximums across the south-east.
That pattern is consistent with a strengthening El Niño. Forecasters expect the event to continue through spring and peak around late spring or summer. Detailed December–February outlooks are not yet as firm, but the Bureau has noted it is too early to lock in a full summer picture.
Historically, El Niño raises the odds of hotter conditions and can sustain drier tendencies in the east, though its rainfall influence often eases later in the season. Early-season heat and an elevated bushfire risk in parts of New South Wales are already flagged. Spring and summer are therefore forecast as warmer than average, with a lean toward drier conditions in southern and eastern districts rather than a guaranteed drought. Local thunderstorms remain possible, especially along the ranges.
Farmers on the Slopes will watch soil moisture closely after a wetter-than-forecast winter inland. Clear skies under El Niño can still bring frost risk in early spring even as average temperatures rise.
Major storages within 300 kilometres of Harden received a useful winter lift. Burrinjuck Dam on the Murrumbidgee, roughly 70–90km from Harden near Yass, sits around 64 percent. Lake Wyangala on the Lachlan near Cowra, about 100 km north, is near 65–68 percent. Blowering Dam on the Tumut River, around 100–130km away, is about 65 percent. Hume Dam on the Murray, some 200–220km south near Albury, is higher at around 78–80 percent. Smaller storages such as Carcoar are near full.
These levels are healthier than mid-winter readings but remain below some long-term seasonal averages in places. WaterNSW figures show southern valleys (Murrumbidgee around 64 percent, Murray around 78 percent) in reasonable shape after the inland rains, though managers will be watching spring inflows under the drier outlook.
Local producers and town water users on the South West Slopes therefore head into spring with a mixed ledger: a warmer-than-usual winter that delivered better-than-expected rain inland, storages that have recovered somewhat, and an El Niño that raises the probability of heat and reduced rainfall ahead. The Bureau will update its outlooks regularly as the Pacific signal evolves.
For now, the message from the climate models is clear: prepare for a warm spring and a summer that is more likely to run hot than wet on the eastern inland.
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